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Friday, January 20, 2017

Journalism 04 - All journalists need to watch the movie Mad City

In 1997, a movie featuring John Travolta and Dustin Hoffman was released. I recommend this movie to all my journalist friends. It is a must watch.


In 1997, it showcases the effects of post-truth news. They hadn't coined that word yet then. But most of the things you will see in the movie are surreal.

However, it is not a futuristic film. Whatever is depicted is an extrapolation of sorts from the Lady Diana's death which happened in Aug 1997. In the years leading up to it, there were discussions of possibility of papparazi getting killed while chasing her. Sadly, she ended up in that accident.

But it tells you of power of media, the responsibility and the effects.


Journalism 03 - Arianna Huffington on the media

Arianna Huffington spoke to Editor-in-Chief of The Economist Zanny Minton Beddoes on the role of the media.





Some interesting points here:

We can come out of this but it depends on how wise our leaders are going to be.

There is lot less time for reflection.

At the start of election process Trump was given lot of uncritical publicity that was not justified by anything except the ratings.

We have to get back to the world where there is such a thing as truth.

Sometimes there are no two sides to the story - like in climate change. "everything has two sides" gives an impression that there is no truth.


Some comments:

Huffington is right on many counts. I am not sure Huffington Post was above it all though. In any case there is nothing wrong with what she is saying.

Journalists did abdicate their responsibility to dig out the truth. 

Opinion war type journalism
Most of the journalist  deal with opinion war. In an opinion war journalists as one person about their views on some subject or better still some person. Then they go to a person who holds opposite views on the topic and ask them to comment about the adverse remarks of the former. 

This is fine if the debate was based on correct facts or it was about interpretation of facts. But sadly the debate is about "facts" themselves. Or it is pure opinion - with a topic like "What do you think Kim Kardashian do next?" or something.

This makes for a good road-side brawl and gets that type of rubber-necking attention but no further. It does however demean the institution of journalism. 

In case of climate change, this is absolutely true. The whole truth about human action causing warming was reduced to a bunch of opinions on global warming.


Cold-war effect
It is possible that decline of journalism started during cold-war times when the press gave up their values and got themselves a pop-corn and soda and eagerly bought into the cold-war propaganda.

Not all did it, I admit. And some did it because other side would not respond properly and facts were difficult to ascertain. But some did buy into the propaganda completely.



Buy my books "Subverting Capitalism & Democracy" and "Understanding Firms".

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Future Work 01 - Work not education makes people dumber!

How can we ensure that the workforce in a country continues to create jobs, create value and economic and other returns for its people in the current environment? The current environment is quite challenging for the employees. Those laid-off due to automation feel frustrated and find that they cannot find equivalent employment.

Economic value chains are changing rapidly. They are spreading out geographically. Skill obsolescence is quite high too with robots and computers being able to take up quite a bit of work. The profile of jobs is becoming polarised - extreme high value adding jobs (chip designer, chef, super specialist surgeons etc.) and extremely low-end (janitors etc.) Further, it is happening at an unprecedented pace.

On the contrary, the speed at which skills are being acquired and developed is quite slow. Thus, the people who have lost their manufacturing jobs to automation are not quite employable in similar pay-grade in as quick time. Two factors hinder in the process. First, the laid-off people are older and thus slower learners. Second, the skill spread is so wide that betting on the right skill, acquiring it and making a life by using it is difficult. Few unlucky ones have seen their new skills become obsolete too.

This dichotomy is a mismatch between the job profile of the economy and the skill profile of the economy. As the mismatch widens people feel more frustrated.

This wasn't the case in early years because of the nature of manufacturing jobs. The skills gained by the people working in the first factories were about organising and basic skills (turning, fitting etc.) These skills did not become obsolete only their demand did. But today these skills have been replaced by better fabrication machines and instrumentation. Thus, the skills that the workers have are not required.

The job profiles so developed as to reduce the judgement factor within the job. This makes people dumber as Adam Smith notes. Here is the quote from Adam Smith
"In the progress of the division of labour, the employment of the far greater part of those who live by labour, that is, of the great body of the people, comes to be confined to a few very simple operations, frequently to one or two. But the understandings of the greater part of men are necessarily formed by their ordinary employments. The man whose whole life is spent in performing a few simple operations, of which the effects are perhaps always the same, or very nearly the same, has no occasion to exert his understanding or to exercise his invention in finding out expedients for removing difficulties which never occur. He naturally loses, therefore, the habit of such exertion, and generally becomes as stupid and ignorant as it is possible for a human creature to become. The torpor of his mind renders him not only incapable of relishing or bearing a part in any rational conversation, but of conceiving any generous, noble, or tender sentiment, and consequently of forming any just judgment concerning many even of the ordinary duties of private life. Of the great and extensive interests of his country he is altogether incapable of judging, and unless very particular pains have been taken to render him otherwise, he is equally incapable of defending his country in war. The uniformity of his stationary life naturally corrupts the courage of his mind, and makes him regard with abhorrence the irregular, uncertain, and adventurous life of a soldier. It corrupts even the activity of his body, and renders him incapable of exerting his strength with vigour and perseverance in any other employment than that to which he has been bred. His dexterity at his own particular trade seems, in this manner, to be acquired at the expense of his intellectual, social, and martial virtues. But in every improved and civilised society this is the state into which the labouring poor, that is, the great body of the people, must necessarily fall, unless government takes some pains to prevent it."
Thus drained of the vitality of growth, initiative, the determined decision-making, the application of thought and the generation of ideas, such worker is thrown into the open world which values exactly that. So it may have been work and not education, as argued by Sir Ken Robinson,  that makes people dumber.


Monday, January 16, 2017

World War 3 watch 01 - Some developments

Actually, this should the third post but I summarise what I observed in the past.

Probability of war seems to have increased. It is still small but definitely increased. Though it is unlikely that India will be involved in one (we never invaded any country in 5000 years - so we dont have the mindset) But, look how different war-indicating trends are catching up.
  1. China has more males in its population - typically when the pop ratio gets skewed the chances of war increases. Further, income polarization is very high in China. 
  2. Recession will make more people (mainly youth) unemployed and in financially distressed situation - implying combative etc
  3. US-china have classical debtor-creditor problem any strong arm by China will not be taken lightly by US. China believes it may be wronged by the US. If US dollar devalues then you can be sure things wont be easy on this front.
  4. War is by far the biggest domestic stimulus one can give - creates domestic jobs and stuff hence politicians are ok with war in such times.
  5. The typical flash points are visible - Afghanistan Pakistan is now a flash-point. If Us forces are attacked or get in some trouble then we could see drastic actions. Earlier North Korea, Malaysian protests, Demonstrations in Greece were some flash points ( though none as big as Af-Pak)
  6. Religious alignments are getting more stricter - talibanization of SWAT valley in Pakistan is an indicator. To certain degree, Obama election has reduced any polarization along religious lines that we saw earlier in US.
  7. US policies and other global stimuli are going to result in more income polarization. As global inflation strikes the differences will become more evident - I can foresee Mary Antoinette - "if you don't have bread eat cake" statements. 
  8. Usually such conditions are off-set by economic growth (that promotes peace) - but that has near about halted in past few months. Now if things do not improve we could be in for much tougher times.

  1. In 2015 Japanese parliament permitted their army to go aggressive( with US blessings). They have been making ships and aircraft carriers since few years ago displayed in Aussie, Singapore, Japan and US joint exercise - small allegedly helicopter carrier or something. 
  2. Last week I was seeing Singapore Air Force Fighter planes on evening patrols. Also every day they have the another surveillance plane - it is not the boeing posiedon in the air. 
  3. On friday, India announced surgical strikes on terror bases in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. 
  4. Last week, Singapore PM met Japanese PM Abe. Last month he met Obama. Chinese news paper is accused Singapore of siding with US. This week Singapore PM is meeting Narendra Modi.
  5. Last week Japanese PM Abe met Narendra Modi and promised him some military tech and other assistance including manufacturing assistance.
  6. Phillipines has abandoned US and is courting China. Durtete made a statement that he received encouragement from China and Russia on his anti-US remarks.
  7. Last month the International Arbitration Tribunal restrained China from claiming rights on South China Sea.
  8. Last month Austrailia published a white paper on maritime defence highlighting the need to protect the interest in the northern coasts and in the Pacific. Australia does not have any threat from any country in the Pacific save China. It is way far out and super friendly with most of the major powers. It has a love-hate relations with some island countries where China has become active.
  9. US is offering F-16 (yeah the old ones) to India for make-in-India option. (The tech is old but the offer is quite lucrative)


A few more developments are have taken place since then,

  1. Russia unveiled Satan -2 ICBM range exceeding 11,000kms
  2. India successfully tested Smart Anti-Airfield Missile (Bunker busters)
  3. Israel has received its F35s which will be fitted with Israeli tech
  4. Russia launched massive war drill involving civilians.
  5. Russia has also deployed nuclear missiles in Kaliningrad.
  6. Great Britain stated that it will sail its ships through south China Sea in 2017 and station ships and aircraft in 2020.
  7. The US activated the missile shield in Europe last year
  8. The US will be deploying THAAD systems in South Korea soon.
  9. Japan's helicopter carrier seems to be a disguised aircraft carrier.
  10. Chinese second aircraft carrier a replica of first one will be commissioned in 2017 or 2018. The third carrier may be equal to the biggest aircraft carriers of US.
  11. http://www.popsci.com/chinese-cargo-ships-get-military-optionChinese government issued directions in 2015 that certain civilian ships may be used by navies in an emergency to augment its naval supply chain.
  12. US-India have finalised a deal for M777 Howitzer.
While these military developments are taking place, Trump is busy questioning one-china policy, the trade arrangements with China and anti-dumping duties. China detained 9 armoured vehicles headed to Singapore after Singapore conducted some military exercises with Taiwan.

Another event is sustained Japanese visits to countries across the Asia-Pacific. These are being made at the highest level and with consistency.

All these developments are not healthy. Unless there is concerted effort to diffuse this situation, it can quickly get out of hand.